search results for 
Logo

Economic outlook

The ongoing austerity measures in the industrial countries will continue to put a strain on the global economy in 2013. Besides the financial and economic crisis in the Eurozone, U.S. fiscal policies will be a major factor affecting the global development. Most of the emerging countries still have some leeway in their fiscal and monetary policies. This would allow them to compensate for a downturn in the industrial countries and to provide positive impulses to their exports. Based on actual forecasts, global GDP will increase by 3.1% in 2013.

The two most important regions for Fresenius are the United States and Europe, which, respectively, contributed 42% and 40% of total sales in 2012, followed by Asia-Pacific (10%), Latin America (6%) and Africa (2%).

EUROPE

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it would intervene under specific conditions and buy government bonds of the peripheral countries. Issuing this signal and establishing European banking supervision under the aegis of the ECB were intended to reinforce investors’ confidence in the monetary union and to calm the situation down.

To support lending, the ECB might lower its prime rate again from its current level of 0.75% to 0.5%. However, experts believe that today’s hesitant investment activity is not likely to change. This will exert a drag on GDP growth, especially in the first half of 2013. The economy will also be affected by the ongoing need to consolidate national budgets. The general prognosis is for a decrease of 0.3% in Eurozone GDP in 2013.

The peripheral countries comprising Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain are not likely to overcome their recessions before 2014. Their high level of indebtedness, efforts to consolidate their budgets, and an unfavorable situation on their labor markets should continue to affect the economies in 2013 and cause another, albeit smaller, decrease in GDP.

Many experts view the situation in France as critical, especially as it is the second-largest lender to the EU’s bailout fund after Germany. GDP is anticipated to fall by 0.3% in 2013.

The German economy is not likely to improve much in 2013. Increasing household income might push up private consumption, but foreign trade will hardly contribute to growth. The economy as a whole is expected to grow by only 0.3%.

UNITED STATES

On January 1, 2013, members of the U.S. Congress agreed on a compromise over the budget, thus averting a fall over the fiscal cliff. Taxes were only raised on very high earners and wealthy Americans, and spending cuts were initially deferred for two months. The budget dispute is therefore scheduled to flare up again at latest by the end of February, with a debate over a possible raising of the debt ceiling.

The real estate market in the United States appears to be recovering and might support growth. But it remains to be seen if the situation on the labor market will stabilize.

Even if some of the more than US$500 billion in austerity measures planned for 2013 are deferred, GDP growth is likely to be lower than in 2012 and estimated at 1.7%.

ASIA

In 2013, Asia will again be the region recording the highest growth, with the two-largest economies – China and India – leading the field. But it remains questionable whether the double-digit, pre-crisis growth rates will be seen again.

It is expected that the new government in China will introduce measures to accelerate the momentum of the economy. Experts predict a moderate increase in China’s growth rate from 7.7% in 2012 to 8.2% in 2013.

In India, a robust domestic demand in 2013, combined with the measures introduced in the fall of 2012, should increase GDP by 6.8%.

Prospects for 2013 in Japan look gloomy. The country’s high level of public debt, the political uncertainty there, the difficult conditions for exports, and low levels of consumption and investment demand will all be a lasting drag on the economy. GDP is therefore expected to grow by only 1.2%.

The other Asian countries are likely to benefit from increasing exports and high employment levels, resulting in GDP growth of about 4.0%.

LATIN AMERICA

Experts expect the Latin American economy to revive in 2013, leading to GDP growth of 3.5%. This will mainly be driven by the region’s largest economy, Brazil. However, growth in smaller Latin American countries, like Chile, Colombia, and Peru, which has been above average, may slow down slightly.

Brazil’s loose monetary and fiscal policies should stimulate both private- and public-sector consumption as well as investment activity in 2013. Given these factors, GDP is expected to grow by 3.3%.

Argentina should benefit from the robust development of its important trading partner, Brazil, and is projected to increase its GDP by 2.5%.

Mexico’s structural reforms and robust domestic demand should stabilize its growth with a GDP increase of 3.5%, which is being slightly below the prior year’s rate.


Sources: German Council of Economic Experts, Annual Report 2012 / 2013, November 2012; bank research

Back to:
Future markets
Continue reading:
Health care sector and markets

QUICKFINDER

History

Tools